Vassend on Verisimilitude and Counterfactual Probabilities

Probabilities of counterfactuals and counterfactual probabilities

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Counterfactual Probabilities: Computational Methods, Bounds and Applications

Evaluation of counterfactual queries (e.g., "If A were true, would C have been true?") is important to fault diagnosis, planning, and determination of liability. In this paper we present methods for computing the proba­ bilities of such queries using the formulation proposed in [Balke and Pearl, 1994], where the antecedent of the query is interpreted as an external action that forces the propos...

Judea Pearl Probabilities of Causation: Three Counterfactual

According to common judicial standard, judgment in favor of plaintiff should be made if and only if it is “more probable than not” that the defendant’s action was the cause for the plaintiff’s damage (or death). This paper provides formal semantics, based on structural models of counterfactuals, for the probability that event x was a necessary or sufficient cause (or both) of another event y. T...

Probabilities Of Causation: Three Counterfactual Interpretations And Their Identification

According to common judicial standard, judgment in favor of plaintii should be made if and only if it is \more probable than not" that the defendant's action was the cause for the plaintii's damage (or death). This paper provides formal semantics, based on structural models of counterfactuals, for the probability that event x was a necessary or suucient cause (or both) of another event y. The p...

Verisimilitude and Likelihood